Our November copper press release reveals that global smelting activity fell again in October according to the SAVANT Global Copper Monitoring Index, as the percentage of world capacity registered as inactive reached its highest level this year at 15.1%, following a month-on-month rise of 1.7%.
This was in large part due to a sharp decline in smelting activity in China where the inactivity series jumped by 6.9% to 13.8%, the largest single month increase since April 2024. However, there are significant differences at a regional level which speak to the changing dynamics within the industry, as economic growth moves away from traditional centres in the north. Indeed, in the East and South Central regions, which together account for nearly 30% of capacity in the SAVANT Global Index, inactivity remains low at only 6.4% and 6.3% respectively. Of the major smelters located here, downtime was limited to two smelters in Anhui province, namely 330 kt/a Jinlong (Tongdu) and 100 kt/a Youjin Guanhua.
Fig I: East & South Central China combined Inactive Capacity, June 2025 – Present, 21-day moving average
However, the country level series is being pulled higher by low levels of smelting activity in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China, where (capacity weighted) inactivity averages 40% across the three regions. Smelter maintenance and/or capacity rationalisation was particularly evident in the Northeast, with 300 kt/a Jinchuan Gansu no. 2, 220 kt/a Chifeng Jintong, 100 kt/a Fuxin Bofa, 100 kt/a Huludao Hongyue Northern Copper and 55kt/a Fubang all registering at least 10 days of inactivity over October. It is additionally noteworthy that Fuxin Bofa, which was previously known as Top Eastern before being sold in 2019, has been offline since early September (see Figure II). We believe that the smelter could have been permanently shuttered – as a privately owned, undersized facility it would be especially vulnerable both to prevailing market conditions, which continue to see negative spot treatment and refining charges (‘TC/RCs’), as well as the central government’s anti-involution drive.
Meanwhile in the Rest of World (RoW), smelting activity increased by 2.2%, as deduced by a fall of the same magnitude in the inactive capacity sub-index to 16%. There was no discernible pattern across the regions, with Africa seeing the largest month-on-month change as the continent’s inactive capacity sub-index fell by 26.4% to 13.4%. This signals a swift reversal of the spike we noted last month, with the return of the 250 kt/a Chambishi and 310 kt/a Nchanga smelters in the Copperbelt. Additionally, while we believe that commissioning of the 500 kt/a Kamoa-Kakula smelter is imminent, SAVANT monitoring has yet to detect any operating signals from the plant.
Of the other regions, Asia & Oceania regained its leading position in terms of average active smelting capacity as the inactive capacity series fell by 1.3% to 6.6%, while that in Europe simultaneously rose by 3.6% to 10.3%. Both series remain well below their respective 3-year averages for October of 11.6% and 14.2% indicating healthy levels of operation, in contrast to North and South America where smelting activity currently lags the 3-year averages by 5.4% and 10.6%.
Fig II: Fuxin Bofa smelter, July 2025 – Present
Yellow = active, blue = inactive, grey = no reading
