Our March Nickel update shows that global smelting activity strengthened by 1.6% in March according to our SAVANT Metals Monitoring Index, with the percentage of the world’s capacity registered as inactive falling to its lowest level since May last year at 12.3%.
This was due to broad-based strength across the globe with all regions except the Americas recording rises, consistent with seasonal patterns in industrial activity and consumer spending which tend to pick up with the thaw in temperatures in the northern hemisphere, home to many of the world’s largest economies.
Indonesia was at the forefront of the improvement, with the country-level inactive capacity series falling by 2.3% to just 11%, a full 8% lower than January’s 7-year high. With nickel pig iron (NPI) accounting for nearly 80% of total capacity monitored by SAVANT in the world’s largest nickel producer, it was therefore unsurprising that NPI segment level activity simultaneously rose to its highest in almost a year.
At the same time, activity in both Class 1 nickel and ferronickel also increased last month, by 0.5% and 3.2% respectively. It is worth noting that the increases in sulphuric acid prices due to the war in Iran are unlikely to result in an imminent downturn in production for any of these end-use products, as the high pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants that are most impacted predominately produce an intermediate mixed-hydroxide for use in EV batteries (for a full analysis, please see our blog post ‘Why the Iran war will have long term repercussions for critical minerals’).
Fig I: SAVANT NPI Inactive Capacity Sub-index, 21-day moving average, April 2025 – Present
Meanwhile China recorded an inactive capacity reading within SAVANT in single digits for the third consecutive month, the first time this has happened in more than three years. In other regions, smelting activity strengthened in Europe and Africa for the second month in a row, by 4.6% and 14.2% respectively, although the rise in the former was not due to the restart of any of the continent’s ferronickel operations, but instead a stronger operating profile at 45 kt/a Boliden Harjavalta in Finland. With Asia & Oceania also recording a rise in March, this time of 2%, the Americas were the only region to register a decline, of 5.1%.
