14 August 2024 – London – Latest data from Earth-i‘s SAVANT real-time Global Copper Monitoring Index shows an average of 16.2% of global smelter capacity (covering 90% of the total) was inactive in the first seven months of 2024, compared with the more usual level of 13.9% posted in the same period last year. In July, however, the index averaged 17.1%, down from almost 20% the previous month.
The decline was driven mainly by China where smelter inactivity ended July at 9.9% compared with 12.4% through to mid-month, following restarts after maintenance closures. Inactivity outside China was little changed over the month.
Fig I: China smelter inactivity, 6 May 2024 – 6 August 2024
Several major smelters both in and outside China have restarted in recent weeks after the completion of scheduled maintenance to more than offset patchy outages at some smaller plants.
China’s 220,000 tonnes per year (tpy) Chifeng Jintong facility resumed in July following a planned one-month closure – see Fig II. On top of that, the Fubang plant (Fig III) has resumed after a three-month long closure while the Baotou, Wuxin and Kunming facilities (see Fig IV) remain long-term inactive. Some reports suggest that Kunming will be replaced by a new plant as early as August 2024, but as yet we see no indication. We will continue to monitor for signs of activity.
Fig II: Chifeng Jintong smelter activity, 2024
Fig III: Fubang smelter activity, 2024
Fig IV: Kunming, Wuxin and Baotou smelter activity
Yellow = Active / Blue = Inactive / Grey = No reading
In Germany, the large Hamburg smelter owned by Aurubis has returned to production as planned following completion of maintenance, while we note inactivity at Samsun in Turkey, Tsumeb in Namibia, and most significantly Isabel Leyte in the Philippines.
Looking ahead to 2025, persistent tightness in the copper concentrate market means smelter activity levels will remain important to monitor, particularly amid reports that two major producers plan to curb their output.
See more about Earth-i’s SAVANT Global Copper Monitoring Index here.
About SAVANT:
Earth-i’s SAVANT platform monitors up to 90% of the smelting capacity for copper, nickel and steel around the globe and provides indicators of smelter activities around the globe, in an easy-to-understand format, covering multiple metals and minerals.
The Inactive Capacity Index is derived from binary observations of a smelter’s operational status as being either active or inactive. The capacity weighted global and regional indices show the percentage of smelter capacity that is inactive, with readings displayed in the chart below as a weekly rolling average. A reading of zero would indicate 100% smelting capacity.
Data is collected and analysed using advanced algorithms derived from Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning techniques. Data is taken from several different Earth Observation satellites and our global and regional indices are updated daily to give consistent, insightful and dependable results.
Three types of indices are provided: smelter activity levels, production levels and periods of shutdown or inactivity. With daily monitoring capability, SAVANT provides data on a near real-time basis for up to 95% of global smelting capacity, including China, about individual smelters, regions, countries and companies.
Activity is scientifically measured using a consistent methodology. Over eight years of historical data is available.
About Earth-i:
Earth-i is a geospatial intelligence company using machine learning, artificial intelligence and Earth Observation data to provide unique and relevant insights, derived from diverse geospatial data, that deliver clear decision advantage for businesses, governments and other organisations.
Earth-i provides advanced analytics using automated interpretation of a range of geospatial Earth Observation data sources including colour imagery, colour video, infra-red and radar from a range of sources including satellite, drone, aerial and ground-based sensors. This data is fused with additional data sources to extract factual understanding and generate predictive insights across a range of markets such as commodities, supply chain, agriculture, infrastructure and defence.
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Email: savant@earthi.co.uk / Website: www.earthi.space / LinkedIn: Earth-i
